Tuesday, March 24, 2009

America's Debt load dangerous from Jan 09

I just found out my wife and I owe almost $70,000. My mother, father, brother and sister owe $140,000. I have two daughters, two sons-in-law, and two granddaughters. They owe $210,000. Together my immediate family owes almost half a million dollars!

It’s not just my family, either. Every family living in my Northeast Georgia county shares this financial burden. If my math is correct residents of Habersham County owe $1,470,000,000.

Yep - that’s right! Habersham County’s share of the NATIONAL DEBIT is almost 1½ BILLION dollars! That, my friends, is a LOT of money. It would build 150 new county courthouses or would run our county government for the next 75 years without a single dollar of tax income.

The total amount of the national debt? According to the Congressional Budget Office, as of early February 2009, our Federal Government now owes $10,633,508,902,000.00. That is over 10 ½ trillion dollars.

I would like to say that we are starting to pay on this tremendous debt, but we are not. In fact, almost every time you hear congress passes a new bill and it is signed into law, you need to know it is adding to the amount you and I as American citizens owe. If the new trillion dollar stimulus passes, it will add over $3400 per person to the national debt.

I have a few questions. From whom are we borrowing this money? What is the interest rate? How much are the payments?

Apparently, we owe almost half to the Federal Reserve, but what is disturbing is we owe well over one third of our debt to foreign governments. Almost $700 billion, over 22%, is owed to Mainland China. We owe Japan almost $600 billion. We are also indebted to England, Russia, and more than 25 other countries.

I think the interest rate varies, but the so called “stimulus package” is estimated to be $825 billion. When you add interest it will come to $1.1 trillion. That is $275 billion in interest.

The federal government doesn’t make monthly payments on the debt - we can’t afford to. We basically just pay the interest and pay off old bonds or notes (loans) with new ones.

This madness has got to stop! While it is true, the United States has always carried debt, and some economists would argue that an acceptable amount of debt is a good thing; this amount of staggering indebtedness cannot be good. I have even more concern when you consider whom we are borrowing it from.

People have been complaining about the national debt for most of my life. It is nothing new. In fact, I understand that it was even a larger part of the GNP during WWII than it is now, but times are different now. Most of the debt in the 30's & 40's was to fund the war. Today most of our deficit is to fund entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that if current law is not changed, sometime between 2030 and 2040 the amount spent on entitlements will exceed the nations income. That means that every penny we spend for discretionary expenses, such as defense, infrastructure, education and etc., will have to be borrowed.

According to Dr. Larry Kotlikoff, noted economist and professor at Boston University, unless something is done soon, the United States could face bankruptcy by 2060.

Our only hope for getting out of this mess is the entrepreneurial spirit of the American people. Borrowing money, adding to the national debt and increasing taxes will not do it. It was the American entrepreneurial spirit that got the economy going in the early 20th Century and again after WWII. We started paying on the national debt again during the 90's largely because of the thousands of Americans starting new businesses thanks to the “dot com” phenomenon. The more people earn, the more taxes they pay. People like Bill Gates and Paul Allen of Microsoft; Larry Page and Sergey Brin at Google; Pierre Omidyar at E-Bay and other ambitious Americans have added millions of jobs that didn’t exist 30 years ago. What started as SMALL business in the 80's and 90's is now BIG business.

Early in January then President-Elect Obama proclaimed that only government could lift the country out of our current economic crisis. I disagree. I believe only small business can bring back prosperity.

I’m not sure what the next entrepreneurial opportunity will be. Possibly in the 21st Century a new energy source, or marketable transportation alternative will do what cars and refrigerators did for the early 20th Century or what computers and high tech did for the late 20th Century. Whatever it is it better come soon.

I beg President Obama and Congress to stop spending on anything that does not DIRECTLY lead to jobs and stimulating business. My granddaughters, age 4 and 2, simply can’t afford it!


Bobby Watson
277 Charlie Batson Rd
Demorest, GA 30535
discoverytours@windstream.net

Open Letter to Obama - from Jan 2009

Dear President Obama,
Congratulations on an impressive campaign. If you become as effective a President as you were a campaigner, you will make a far better leader than I expected. The problem is being president is a lot more difficult than running for president.

In October, before the election, I saw a political cartoon that caught my attention. One of your aides was whispering in your ear, “I have good news and bad news. The good news is it appears you will be elected president. The bad news? It looks like you will be elected president!” In the bottom corner one of McCain’s aids was whispering in his ear, “I have bad news and GOOD news....”

When it comes to the economy, you have to make a choice. Do you want to fix our financial mess permanently, or just patch it up to make you look good in the short run? If you just want make it look good in the short run your current approach will probably work. Just throw more and more money at the American people and things will look rosy for a few years.

When a drunk awakens from a riotous night on the town with a killer hangover, a couple of shots of alcohol will make him feel better for a few hours, but eventually the drunk will hit bottom and the effects could be fatal.

For most of my life the American people have been on a wild spending spree. When the money ran short - no problem - just borrow some more. When the payments got too high - no problem - just combine the loans into one larger loan with lower payments. After all it’s not how much you owe, the only thing that makes a difference is if you can make the minimum payment. Soon every penny of income is used meeting obligations for things that are slowly losing their value.

Then all of the sudden, without any warning, fuel prices start going through the roof - no problem - just put it on the credit card. You don’t notice it at first, but soon those credit card balances start to max out and there is simply not enough money. No problem - I’ll just borrow more money. But wait - I can’t! I have no more equity and the banks are out of money.

It appears to this North Georgia boy that what you and other politicians from both political parties are proposing as a fix is the very thing that got us into this mess in the first place. Let’s just borrow more money.

For the last several years every time I listen to the news, the government is throwing a few billion here, and a few billion there with no thought whatsoever about where that money is coming from. No problem - we’ll just borrow some more. People are down on their luck because of poor decisions they made - no problem - the government can just give them some money. Of course, the government is way deeper in debit and has made a lot more imprudent choices than the constituency it is trying to help. No problem - just borrow more money.

Most Americans, including myself, have built their financial future from a deck of cards named LOANS. For many the structure is massive. When high fuel, health care, and taxes started kicking down some of the cards the house built of cards fell.

I’m just a country boy from the Georgia mountains, but it appears to me that the government is making the same mistakes many Americans made that got us into this mess. Eventually a devastating war and/or natural disaster will kick down a few key cards and the massive government house of cards that your predecessors built will come falling down. Our national debt will be far more than the American people can pay. That would be tragic and could send our country into a dire and possibly fatal crisis.

My advice? Years ago I was taking flying lessons. While flying at a safe, high altitude the instructor kicked the rudder and put the plane in a downward spiral. The harder I tried to correct the plane the worse it got. Thankfully the experienced pilot took over and soon we were flying straight and level again. The instructor looked and me and said, “Son, this plane is built to fly. When you find yourself in a mess like that simply take you hands off the wheel and your feet off the rudder pedals. It will be the hardest thing you will ever do and you’ll be in for one heck of a ride, but the plane knows what to do and eventually it will fly. If you try to fix it you only make it worse, and in all likelihood you’ll end up a statistic.”

Mr. President, it will be the hardest thing you will ever do and it may even cost your precious popularity in the short run, but I think you and our government leaders should take your hands off the wheel and your feet of the rudder pedals. The ride may be scary, but the hard work and entrepreneurial spirit of the American people has made us the strongest country in the history of the world. Our economy will come back. Sure, we will need to correct a few of the problems that caused the downward spin, but trying to overcorrect because everyone is yelling at you to do something, could be fatal.

The voters who put you in office will likely turn on you, but I have a feeling their grandchildren and great-grandchildren will thank you.

Bobby Watson
277 Charlie Batson Rd
Demorest, GA 30535
DiscoveryTours@Windstream.net

Obama & Earmarks

President Obama has messed up - BIG TIME!

Our new President had the chance to establish his Administration as a true agent of change. He could have easily embarrassed scores of Republican Senators and Congressmen and chastised errant members of his own Democratic Party.

The President let stand over $8,000,000,000 ($8 billion) worth of earmarks in the recently signed Omnibus Spending Bill. It would have taken courage on his part to stand up to the new Democratic Congress, and an admiring public who, at last, saw a politician who did what he said he would do, would have applauded that courage.

But no - he had to prove that he was a politician and not a leader. As a matter of fact, that figure actually included earmarks that both the President and Vice President had added to the bill while still senators.

I have two important questions. What is an Omnibus Spending Bill? Why does it need earmarks?

When I heard Congress was trying to pass Omnibus Spending, I thought they were trying to fund some type of multi-level, new-fangled, inter-city transportation vehicle. When I heard the total cost of the bill was $410 billion I thought, AWow - that=s a BIG BUS!@ Then I remembered the government once spent $40,000 for a toilet seat, so I figured why not spend almost half a trillion dollars on a bus!

Actually, the word omnibus means Aone thing having many parts.@ An Omnibus Bill is legislation that has many bills combined into one bill. An Omnibus Spending Bill combines spending on several different agencies into one bill. Omnibus bills are common and are not a bad thing. In fact, they are a good way to package legislation.

But what are Aearmarks@? I checked three different sources: the Congressional Budget Office; Wikipedia; and Sen. Saxby Chambliss= office. It seems that they can=t agree on a definitive answer, which explains, in part, why our economy is going down the tubes.

Since there seems to be no clear-cut definition, let me offer a Northeast Georgia boy’s paraphrased definition. (Be prepared; the following sentence seems like it will never end - just like earmarks.) AA Congressional >Earmark= is a spending project or item that a congressmen anonymously attaches to a BIG bill that must pass, because no one would ever vote for it because it only helps a few people, who really should be paying for it themselves, but why should they, because the federal government is giving away free money, and your wonderful congressman has just gotten it for you so you will vote for him next time.@

Our US Congress recently passed an Omnibus Spending Bill that had over 9000 of the darn things and we will have to borrow $8 billion to pay for them and our new President, who in a September 2008 debate with John McCain promised to reform the system and do away with earmarks, signed it.


In that debate he promised to go through every bill Aline by line@ so he could cut wasteful spending. By signing the earmark laden Omnibus Spending Bill, President Obama missed a golden opportunity to make a principled stand based on his own campaign promises. It is starting to look as if Obama is President in name only. Apparently, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reed are running the country!

President Obama must start reigning in Congress because they are bumbling around like a bunch of rank amateurs. First they pass a monstrous “Stimulus Bill” - which no one had time to read in its final version. When Democratic Senator Dodd adds language that allows for executive compensation, no one notices, until AIG and other beneficiaries pay out the big bucks. Then all heck breaks loose. Rather than admitting the mistake and resolving to be more careful in future legislation, the US House promptly passes an unconstitutional law in an attempt to correct the blunder.

Article One – Section 9 of the US Constitution clearly prohibits punitive laws after the fact. I am starting to wonder if most congressmen have even read the Constitution. If they have, they sure have a weird way of interpreting it.

The Obama Administration and Congress would do well to slow down and take a deep breath. We must identify the problem and carefully proceed with measured steps that are carefully researched and thought out.

In 1799, George Washington suffered from laryngitis and pneumonia after riding through a snowstorm. His trusted friend and doctor, James Craik, suggested curing the great Founding Father by administering calomel (a type of mercury) and later “blood-letting.” A younger physician in attendance strongly suggested a “tracheotomy”, (which would have helped the President) but was overruled. Dr. Craik proceeded to slowly bleed our first President to death.

Mr. President, be careful. If you listen to Congress their incompetence will do for your leadership what Dr. Craik’s “cure” did for President Washington’s life.

Bobby Watson
277 Charlie Batson Rd
Demorest, GA 30535
706-968-2804 cell
discoverytours@windstream.net

Friday, March 13, 2009

The one thing that could help get the world economy rolling again is the one thing I seldom hear suggested. More than money, bailouts and stimulus bills, our country needs a change in ATTITUDE!

Doom and gloom has a terrible byproduct - MORE doom and gloom.

I have heard several commentators say we now have the worst economy since the early 1980's.
After doing some research I’ve discovered they are probably right. I remember the early 80's well. I was a young man trying hard to support my wife and two young daughters. I have many fond memories of those years, but it’s the strangest thing. I DON’T remember a recession!

I do remember some things about that time period. When I graduated college in 1973 $3 in gas would fill up my VW bug. By 1980 it cost over $10. One year the church I was working with gave me a 12% raise which didn’t come close to compensating for the inflation rate of almost 15%. My wife and I felt very fortunate to get our house with an 8% mortgage in 1975, because by 1980 the interest rate for house mortgages was over 12%.

Those were the types of excesses and inflation that surely lead to recession but there was something different back then. We didn’t have 24-hour news channels, talk radio and politicians continually reminding us that we were in a financial crisis. I’m sure the recession of the early 80's was difficult on a lot people, but we certainly did not experience the anxiety and fear most feel today.

We have had 19 significant recessions, depressions or economic panics during America’s almost 233-year history and we have survived them all. Each period of economic downturn was caused by a different set of circumstances and recovery came as a result of many different factors. But there has been a common thread in each return to prosperity - a renewed spirit of optimism.

The federal government often had to pass laws and make monetary changes to correct situations that caused a given economic downturn, but in the end it was the positive attitude of the American people that started the economic engine running again.

The longest and, in some ways, the deepest depression was not the Great Depression of the 1930's but the Great Depression of 1873. It lasted almost 23 years. Big business, corrupt government, and uncertainty about the gold and silver supply continually stifled the US and world economy.

During the administration of Pres. William McKinley a movement that became known as the Progressive Era emerged to lead the country into a time of prosperity and growth. While Teddy Roosevelt’s “Bully Pulpit” later championed it, the Progressive Movement was, in fact, a grass roots movement, which started with individuals, and local and state governments who said enough was enough. They started cleaning up the economic mess and stimulating America’s financial future from the ground up.

When Barrack Obama was elected on November 4, 2008, the largest celebration in the history of American presidential politics was held in Grant Park in Chicago, IL. When the party was over the City of Chicago was left to cleanup. Among the rubble I’m sure workers probably found signs proclaiming, “YES WE CAN!” I know they were there, because it seems the Administration doesn’t need the slogan any more. They have replaced it with, “WERE TRYING, BUT DON’T EXPECT MUCH!”

I think Americans of all political persuasions should dust off the old abandoned slogan and with one important change create a new proclamation - “Yes We WILL!”

Yes, we are in difficult times, but last time I checked the national unemployment rate was still under 10%, which means 90% of us are still working. It is true that most of us have seen our retirement, homes and investments lose value, but the money supply in America is still strong. For most of us, life goes on.

In the end it won’t be a $8 billion railroad from LA to “Sin City” championed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reed, or the $30 million that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi slipped into the so called “stimulus bill”, to help protect the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse, that will pull us out of this economic downturn. It will be the positive “YES WE WILL!” attitude of the American people.

Bobby Watson